The Carbon Credit Illusion
By now you have probably come across the term “carbon credits” in one way or another. Its usage usually peaks during election times or when the media is fixated on global warming summits and conferences.
Carbon credits came out of those summits and most people have been led to believe they are part of a legitimate solution to fighting climate change.
Led to believe incorrectly.
The idea at a very basic level is quite simple.
Polluters buy a certificate, someone plants a tree somewhere, and the climate problem magically shrinks. Most people’s understanding of carbon credits ends at this basic level. The reality of carbon credits is far murkier and shadier and its all hidden behind a convoluted web of labels and methodologies designed to discourage prying eyes. You would have to treat this with the same level of complexity as you would trading in the stock market. The average person is not expected to understand the full scope of the market. This complexity in both scenarios is by design.
Because
Complexity breeds ignorance
Ignorance breeds apathy
Apathy protects the governments and corporations who profit from this game.
Carbon credits are not saving the planet.
This is the truth
They’re laundering emissions.
And the people running this system know it.
Confusion Is a Feature, Not a Bug
The confusion is not accidental. The complexity is not an oversight. The system was built to keep the average person in the dark, to overwhelm anyone who tries to follow the money, and to make sure the only people who truly understand how carbon credits work are the ones profiting from them.
The entire industry Is hiding behind a mess of terms:
Carbon taxes
Voluntary credits
Renewable certificates
Cap-and-Trade permits
Compliance credits offsets
I bet you did not know what half of these are or what they refer to. That is not your fault. They were designed to sound similar so they blur together and make an already complex system even more complex. This confusion makes it easier to double count reductions, recycle used credits, generate fake offsets, and hide fraudulent claims under methodologies no normal person could decipher.
This is not climate policy
It is regulatory camouflage thick enough to hide a forest of fraud behind it.
Offsets Let Corporations Pollute Then Bid For Their Innocence
In my books, anything that is a tradeable on a market accessible to anyone, you are bound to see a lot of abuse and corruption at the highest levels. The evidence for this is monumental to say the least. Just look at the stock market
Carbon credits are a tradeable commodity, and their value is known to fluctuate. In fact, anyone can buy carbon credits. Taylor swift bought carbon credits to offset the carbon emissions from her private jet.
Do you see how easy it is to abuse?
In theory:
You emit a ton of CO₂, then pay someone to reduce or remove a ton elsewhere.
In practice:
Companies pollute as usual and buy worthless paperwork to claim they “neutralized” it.
The polluters created a system that only applies to them and to the extremely wealthy. They can pollute as usual and then claim they offset their entire footprint by buying carbon credits and planting trees. Trees that in many cases will not survive rising global temperatures and water shortages.
And the rest of us bought into the initiative because something is better than nothing, right?
One of the biggest scandals involved Verra, the world’s leading carbon credit certifier. Multiple investigations found that more than 90 percent of its rainforest protection credits had no real climate benefit. Entire forest areas supposedly saved were never threatened. Emissions they claimed to avoid never existed.
Yet these fake credits were used by:
United Airlines
EasyJet
Disney
Gucci
Shell
BP
They marketed carbon neutral flights, products, and supply chains using credits that did not offset anything. They shifted the narrative in their favor and positioned themselves as environmentally responsible.
It was never about saving anyone or anything.
It is about perception and profits.
Fraud Is Not a Side Effect. It Is the Business Model
As I mentioned earlier, anything that is tradeable on a market accessible to anyone, you are bound to see fraud and when pollution rights were turned into tradable assets, it created an irresistible playground for scammers, speculators, and organized crime.
Here are some cases worth exploring.
The EU’s Multi Billion Euro Carousel Fraud
Recycled and Duplicate Credits
Some brokers sold the same carbon credit repeatedly to multiple buyers. The system lacked basic record keeping to catch it.
Fake Credits Sold Worldwide
Forest projects created credits for trees that did not exist, farms that were never built, and renewable installations that were never commissioned. Entire batches of credits were fabricated out of thin air.
The C Quest Scandal
A former executive at C Quest Capital manipulated data in cook stove projects across Africa and Asia and generated millions in fraudulent emissions reductions.
The Harvard Junk Credits
Harvard University created an offset project in Uruguay and sold so called high quality credits to EasyJet, Ernst and Young, British American Tobacco, and others. Investigations later exposed them as junk.
The Amazon Timber Laundering Case
Two REDD+ forest projects in the Brazilian Amazon linked to timber laundering still sold credits to PwC, Toshiba, Nestle, and Gol Airlines. Illegal logging was certified as climate protection.
Shell’s Phantom CO2
Shell’s Quest carbon capture facility in Canada issued 5.7 million credits for CO2 reductions that never happened. Oil companies were awarded credits for not removing carbon.
Credit Markets Give Big Polluters an Unfair Advantage
If pollution becomes a tradable commodity, then only the richest corporations can afford to keep polluting. The cost to pollute is low compared to the profits these companies generate for themselves and their shareholders. In most cases it is cheaper to buy credits than upgrade old infrastructure.
This is the hidden truth behind carbon markets.
Oil giants buy offsets instead of transitioning.
Airlines buy forest credits instead of upgrading fleets.
Tech companies buy land for nature based solutions while expanding energy hungry data centers.
Fast fashion giants offset their supply chains instead of reducing consumption.
The only winners are the ones with deep pockets. And the ones with the deepest pockets are the ones responsible for the largest share of emissions.
Governments Know the System Is Broken And They Protect It Anyway
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
– Ronald Reagan
Staying true to that mantra, governments have every reason to keep this fantasy alive.
It avoids unpopular restrictions on fossil fuels
It makes them look like they are taking action
It generates revenue from auctions, taxes, and fees
It shifts responsibility from public policy to private markets
And despite proven fraud, widespread media coverage, and multiple investigations, governments continue to double down.
- The EU expanded cap and trade after massive tax scams.
- California’s market allows oil refiners to use offsets instead of reducing emissions.
- Canada continues promoting offset systems while national emissions rise.
- The UN certifies projects that independent audits later exposed as ineffective.
To promote a system that has faced rampant abuse and failed at delivering meaningful reductions implies that all parties are benefitting from its failure. That conclusion is not far fetched.
The Outcome Test: The Atmosphere Does Not Lie
Carbon credits cannot be construed as efforts to fight global warming or limit emissions. There is no evidence that any of it has worked. Climate data shows that we are accelerating global warming at a faster rate than previously thought.
So how come all this offsetting, tree planting, and carbon capturing has failed to do the one thing it was designed to do.
Fossil fuel use is increasing
Deforestation is accelerating
Atmospheric CO2 is at record highs
Global temperatures are at record highs
Global CO2 emissions are at record highs
Methane and nitrous oxide are at record highs
The planet does not care about certificates, credits, verifiers, audits, or sustainability reports. It cares about action because that is what it responds to.
We have done very little actioning and a lot of paper pushing. And we have allowed corporations and regulators to draw attention away from an issue that will create serious problems for us in the future. This fact is well known by the fossil fuel industry and by national and international regulators.
The Hard Truth
I have taken a harsh stance towards carbon credits because I do not believe they were ever designed to serve as a real solution. I believe the system was built to delay action. Carbon credits were not designed to reduce emissions.
They were designed to protect:
Corporate power
Short term profits
Political reputations
Global supply chains
With the amount of money the fossil fuel industry generates and how much of the world relies on its energy and raw resources, it is no surprise that powerful players would protect their interests any way they can.
Even if it comes at the expense of everyone else.
If there is still doubt, remember that this is the same industry that once bribed universities, professors, and researchers to influence public discourse on climate change. They did this for decades while hiding and manipulating data to downplay the impact of fossil fuels. And when caught, they paid fines and moved on.
Here is another one to give you more perspective. Tobacco executives once faced congress and said under oath that cigarettes do not cause cancer and are not harmful to health. They said this while fully aware of the fact that cigarettes cause cancer.
These are the people you are fighting against. And we helped them build a system they control and can manipulate whenever they feel like. Our politicians and regulators get their cut. And in return the world records some of the worst air quality readings in history.
One day we will look back at this period and ask a very uncomfortable question.
What stopped us from doing more.
You made it to the end. That means you liked it or you’re very patient. Either way, subscribe, share, and tell your friends. I need a big network for reasons.
For moving pictures and questionable facial expressions, check out YouTube @dygres.
Sources:
Greenfield, Patrick. “Revealed: more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets by biggest provider are worthless, analysis shows.” The Guardian. 18 Jan 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe
Financial Times. “Shell plant reported millions of ‘phantom’ carbon credits.” FT.com. https://www.ft.com/content/93938a1b-dc36-4ea6-9308-170189be0cb0
Greenfield, Patrick. “Rainforest carbon credit schemes misleading and ineffective, finds report.” The Guardian. 15 Sep 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/15/rainforest-carbon-credit-schemes-misleading-and-ineffective-finds-report
The Guardian. “CEO of world’s biggest carbon credit certifier to resign after claims offsets worthless.” 23 May 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/23/ceo-of-worlds-biggest-carbon-credit-provider-says-he-is-resigning
Euronews. “How was Shell able to double its carbon credits in Canada?” 7 May 2024. https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/05/07/false-promises-and-phantom-emissions-how-was-shell-able-to-double-its-carbon-credits-in-ca
Europol. “Further investigations into VAT fraud linked to the Carbon Emissions Trading System.” 28 Dec 2010. https://www.europol.europa.eu/media-press/newsroom/news/further-investigations-vat-fraud-linked-to-carbon-emissions-trading-system
Teffer, Peter. “EU carbon credit system still ‘at risk of VAT fraud’.” EUobserver. 2 July 2015. https://euobserver.com/green-economy/ar40292fc9
Greenqueen (Anay Mridul). “Shell Sold $200M Worth of ‘Phantom’ Carbon Reduction Credits That Never Happened.” 21 May 2024. https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/shell-greenpeace-200m-phantom-carbon-emissions-reduction-credits
The Guardian. “As carbon offsetting faces ‘credibility revolution’, shoppers should be wary.” 10 Mar 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/10/as-carbon-offsetting-faces-credibility-revolution-shoppers-should-be-wary
Aon/Shearman Insights. “Carbon fraud is on the rise — but so is the regulatory counteroffensive.” 27 Feb 2025. https://www.aoshearman.com/en/insights/carbon-fraud-is-on-the-rise
Another One?
- All Posts
- Category 2
- Category 3
- Category 4
- Deep Cove
- Unstable Genius
A six month experiment in creating and testing belief, exploring how faith, ritual, and perception shape truth, confidence, and human behavior.